2009 Q4 Building Industry Confidence Survey Results
eboss, the online technical library for the New Zealand building industry, has conducted its quarterly survey of building industry professionals to assess confidence levels amongst the architects, architectural designers, builders, engineers, interior designers, specifiers and suppliers that comprise the New Zealand building industry. More than 175 building industry professionals representing every region of New Zealand responded to the survey.

2. Slow but steady road to recovery

Looking ahead for the next year, almost 75% predict the situation for the industry will improve, which is up a dramatic 30% in just one quarter.  Another optimistic one third believe there will be a turnaround within 6 months, up more than 20% from Q2.

Significantly, the number of people who believe there is still a way to go down over the next 6 months has dropped to a negligible 12.6% compared to more than two thirds in Q1.
Gareth Kiernan, Managing Director of Infometrics says these numbers reflect indications generally that the economy is coming out of the bottom, however he is somewhat surprised at the level of improvement in confidence.

“If you had a different sample focused more on new residential builds, I believe the response would be less optimistic. However, there is currently more good news going through the industry overall, so people’s assessment of the situation changes. There is a big convergence between what people are experiencing right now and what they think will happen a few months down the track, which explains the attitude shift.”

Derek Baxter, CEO of Certified Builders agrees that all things are pointing to the decline having stopped, however he believes it is premature to use the word ‘recovery’ to describe the industry at this stage.

“The right word would be somewhere between survival and recovery,” says Baxter. “Where there are increases they are modest. And, it is important to consider if the modest upswing is just a normal, cyclical summer rise. I believe we are still hovering at the bottom of the trough as an industry, although there are niches picking up, particularly additions and alternations.”

Mike Flooks adds that enquiry levels were quite flat just 3 months ago, and the resurgence of enquiry partially accounts for the confidence lift over the last quarter. “The confidence boost is also a reflection of global confidence and what’s coming through the media.  In addition, interest rates are low and job security is higher, which makes it a good time to build again,” says Flooks.

Download the full Building Industry Confidence Report here.